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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 7.6 wins, so it did -4.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.4 pts
Called / graded
7/13
Expected from price
7.6
Flagged volume
$562.5k
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$46k13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Hawks vs. Knicks at 31¢) and the edge is -10.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 34% · n=2
40–60¢
67% vs 52% · n=3
60–80¢
38% vs 66% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$104.3k
Last 30 days −$38.8k · $6.22M volume · 3,945 trades · since Oct 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.45M
Open P&L · 84 positions
−$1.34M
Closed-position win rate
97%
110 closed
Wallet age · markets
366d
193 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 13 | 7 | 7.6 | -4.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 64¢ | $20.9k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 63¢ | $13.3k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $21.1k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 62¢ | $12.4k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $102.4k 4.9× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $95.2k 4.5× usual |
called |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 74¢ | $164.2k 7.8× usual |
called |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ | $40.6k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 38¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 54¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | MED BUY Hawks @ 31¢ | $26.7k | called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 72¢ | $20.2k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 45¢ | $16.6k | called |
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