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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did -15.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.5 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$1.70M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$63k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen at 60¢) and the edge is -23.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 53% · n=2
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$72.3k
Last 30 days −$30.8k · $5.27M volume · 1,453 trades · since Apr 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$606.8k
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$675.6k
Closed-position win rate
83%
64 closed
Wallet age · markets
189d
73 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 4 | 4.8 | -11.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -45.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 72¢ | $43.2k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 72¢ | $31.7k | called |
| Vikings vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 66¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY Ole Miss @ 43¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 70¢ | $34.8k | excluded |
 US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 60¢ | $42.8k | called |
 Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 68¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 46¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $102.0k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 80¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $22.3k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 87¢ | $112.6k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 13¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 57¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢ | $60.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 93¢ | $44.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 42¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 54¢ | $27.1k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 73¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 65¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $89.6k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 18¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $40.8k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $45.1k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 64¢ | $19.2k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 67¢ | $33.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $39.0k | excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 74¢ | $222.0k 7.7× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 70¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 75¢ | $28.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $307.9k 10.7× usual |
called |
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