Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$220
Return on staked
-27.6%
Bets
4/8 won
Edge vs price
-15.5 pts ±16.5
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 22, 16:35 EDTSep 20, 18:58 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs. Chiefs | 72¢ | called | 33d ago |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | 60¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 68¢ | missed | 87d ago |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 64¢ | missed | 146d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 46¢ | missed | 153d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 69¢ | called | 156d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 68¢ | missed | 158d ago |
| Magic vs. Pistons | 78¢ | called | 184d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.