← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 7.2 wins, so it did -1.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.6 pts
Called / graded
7/12
Expected from price
7.2
Flagged volume
$3.09M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$312k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? at 45¢) and the edge is -6.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 40% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=4
60–80¢
83% vs 65% · n=6
80–100¢
0% vs 85% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.06M
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.38M volume · 4,169 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$448.7k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$606.0k
Closed-position win rate
44%
150 closed
Wallet age · markets
308d
154 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 7 | 7.2 | -1.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $47.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $101.8k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $27.6k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $164.3k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $100.4k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $40.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $261.8k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $199.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $495.6k 6.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $82.3k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 31¢ | $58.7k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $98.5k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $103.3k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $43.9k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $50.6k | excluded |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ | $24.7k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $24.7k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW SELL Trail Blazers @ 47¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 46¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 85¢ | $37.6k | missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $176.2k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $76.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | MED BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $197.7k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $67.8k | called |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $31.1k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $100.6k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | MED BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ | $151.3k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW SELL Patriots @ 99.9¢ | $151.3k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 66¢ | $100.0k | called |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xc29e1cef4256f423e5a3e713d886bd25f98da2ca"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xc29e1cef4256f423e5a3e713d886bd25f98da2ca.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc29e1c…