Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$19
Return on staked
-1.6%
Bets
7/12 won
Edge vs price
-1.6 pts ±13.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +3.8 pts (4/6). Newer half: -7.1 pts (3/6). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 08, 14:30 ESTJul 14, 11:37 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 40¢ | missed | 102d ago |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | 50¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | 61¢ | called | 106d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 60¢ | called | 107d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | 73¢ | missed | 117d ago |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | 58¢ | called | 117d ago |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | 50¢ | missed | 119d ago |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | 85¢ | missed | 186d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | 63¢ | called | 237d ago |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | 65¢ | called | 245d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | 45¢ | called | 249d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 69¢ | called | 257d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.