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+$9No · avg 44¢ → 48¢ · $96
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did +14.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +3.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+14.8 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$418.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$77k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 20¢) and the edge is +3.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 20% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$49.5k
Last 30 days +$4 · $1.94M volume · 2,781 trades · since Jun 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$101.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
87%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
482d
788 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 7 | 6 | 5.0 | +14.8 pts |
History
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