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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -43.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-43.7 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$402.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$72.6k
Last 30 days −$8,037 · $8.28M volume · 7,134 trades · since Mar 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.41M
Open P&L · 224 positions
−$121.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
589d
1189 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | -43.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 38¢ | $33.5k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $62.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $22.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 33¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.7¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 41¢ | $12.7k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED SELL Lakers @ 95¢ | $42.5k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 38¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 52¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 53¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 52¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Warriors @ 99.9¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW SELL Trail Blazers @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
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