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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.9 wins, so it did -23.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.4 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
5.9
Flagged volume
$444.6k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$39k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spurs vs. Trail Blazers at 65¢) and the edge is -31.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
57% vs 72% · n=7
80–100¢
0% vs 85% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$160.8k
Last 30 days −$8,779 · $25.31M volume · 41,832 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.51M
Open P&L · 351 positions
−$289.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
268d
4621 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 5.9 | -23.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 72¢ | $10.9k | called |
 Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $12.7k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 77¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 74¢ | $21.9k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $31.2k 2.0× usual |
called |
 LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 82¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
 Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 75¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 74¢ | $16.8k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 68¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 70¢ | $17.2k | called |
| Magic vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $15.2k | missed |
| Bulls vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 90¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 95.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $22.3k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
 Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 58¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
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