one8tyfive

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 14 of 19. The prices it paid implied about 11.6 wins, so it did +12.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?−$298No · avg 50¢ → 50¢ · $29.8k · 0 proven with, 1 against LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage+$54LYON · avg 45¢ → 46¢ · $4,875 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5+$143Under · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $4,542 Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Harriet Dart vs Cheuk Ying Shek−$4,930Harriet Dart · avg 77¢ → 36¢ · $4,217 LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage+$48Team Secret Whales · avg 30¢ → 30¢ · $2,902 Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?+$41No · avg 93¢ → 94.5¢ · $2,575 Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?−$15.9kNo · avg 71¢ → 7.5¢ · $1,875 Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas−$304Nikoloz Basilashvili · avg 53¢ → 44¢ · $1,589

Price-adjusted edge

+12.4 pts

Called / graded

14/19

Expected from price

11.6

Flagged volume

$1.37M

Sample size19 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.3 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$329k

19 graded bets in the order they resolved · 14 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (76ers vs. Celtics at 12¢) and the edge is +8.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

100% vs 12% · n=1

40–60¢

55% vs 54% · n=11

60–80¢

100% vs 71% · n=3

80–100¢

100% vs 87% · n=4

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$988.2k

Last 30 days −$72.2k · $103.29M volume · 121,412 trades · since Jul 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz	LOW BUY Taylor Fritz @ 85¢	$13.0k	85%	20h ago	excluded
Raptors vs. Wizards	LOW BUY Raptors @ 69¢	$10.3k	69%	1d ago	called
Pacers vs. Pelicans	LOW SELL Pacers @ 67¢	$11.4k	33%	2d ago	excluded
Eagles vs. Jaguars	LOW BUY Jaguars @ 68¢	$20.3k	68%	12d ago	excluded
Falcons vs. Saints	LOW BUY Saints @ 53¢	$15.3k	53%	19d ago	missed
Chiefs vs. Raiders	LOW BUY Chiefs @ 99.9¢	$14.7k	100%	19d ago	excluded
Jaguars vs. Bengals	LOW BUY Bengals @ 56¢	$11.2k	56%	19d ago	excluded
Colts vs. Commanders	LOW SELL Colts @ 55¢	$11.1k	45%	19d ago	excluded
Colts vs. Commanders	LOW BUY Colts @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	19d ago	excluded
Colts vs. Chiefs	LOW SELL Chiefs @ 71¢	$14.2k	29%	33d ago	excluded
Colts vs. Chiefs	LOW BUY Chiefs @ 71¢	$14.2k	71%	33d ago	called
Panthers vs. Falcons	LOW BUY Panthers @ 87¢	$20.8k	87%	33d ago	excluded
US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina	LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 58¢	$33.9k 2.2× usual	58%	41d ago	missed
US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov	LOW BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 86¢	$15.7k	86%	50d ago	excluded
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 70¢	$10.8k	70%	57d ago	excluded
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones	LOW BUY Otto Virtanen @ 92.6¢	$13.1k	93%	58d ago	excluded
National Bank Open: Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova	LOW BUY Liudmila Samsonova @ 80¢	$16.0k	80%	77d ago	excluded
National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys	LOW BUY Marta Kostyuk @ 97.5¢	$12.7k	98%	78d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	MED BUY No @ 58¢	$65.5k 4.2× usual	58%	104d ago	called
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 49¢	$11.3k	49%	106d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$12.7k	79%	107d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$39.7k 2.5× usual	81%	113d ago	called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$39.3k 2.5× usual	66%	113d ago	called
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 91¢	$47.3k 3.0× usual	91%	114d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	LOW BUY No @ 25¢	$11.0k	25%	115d ago	excluded
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 58¢	$13.6k	58%	120d ago	excluded
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 49¢	$10.8k	49%	123d ago	called
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	LOW BUY No @ 57¢	$42.4k 2.7× usual	57%	123d ago	missed
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 56¢	$10.5k	56%	126d ago	missed
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	LOW SELL No @ 47¢	$10.9k	53%	127d ago	missed
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Knicks @ 89¢	$27.0k	89%	132d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	LOW BUY No @ 42¢	$10.3k	42%	133d ago	called
Spurs vs. Knicks	MED BUY Knicks @ 54¢	$120.2k 7.7× usual	54%	135d ago	called
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk	LOW BUY Marta Kostyuk @ 54¢	$21.2k	54%	144d ago	called
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	MED BUY No @ 78¢	$31.2k	78%	146d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	LOW BUY BetBoom Team @ 77¢	$12.5k	77%	163d ago	excluded
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina	LOW BUY Elina Svitolina @ 49¢	$12.8k	49%	163d ago	excluded
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	LOW SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante @ 99.4¢	$65.0k 4.1× usual	1%	165d ago	excluded
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	MED BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante @ 87¢	$47.0k 3.0× usual	87%	165d ago	excluded
Rockets vs. Lakers	LOW BUY Lakers @ 68¢	$17.2k	68%	185d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Celtics	MED SELL Celtics @ 88¢	$26.4k	12%	185d ago	called
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner	LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 92¢	$11.7k	92%	209d ago	called
Canucks vs. Flames	LOW BUY Flames @ 59¢	$14.5k	59%	209d ago	excluded
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies	LOW SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 45¢	$10.3k	55%	210d ago	called
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes	LOW SELL Miami Hurricanes @ 54¢	$13.3k	46%	217d ago	excluded
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28?	LOW BUY No @ 45¢	$29.6k	45%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$29.9k	100%	238d ago	excluded
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$26.9k	44%	238d ago	excluded
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 98¢	$19.6k	98%	245d ago	excluded
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?	MED BUY No @ 53¢	$55.8k 3.6× usual	53%	248d ago	excluded
Seahawks vs. Patriots	LOW BUY Seahawks @ 75¢	$29.6k	75%	257d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Clippers	LOW BUY 76ers @ 99.9¢	$29.6k	100%	263d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Clippers	LOW SELL 76ers @ 88¢	$10.9k	12%	263d ago	excluded
Warriors vs. Jazz	MED BUY Warriors @ 70¢	$26.1k	70%	268d ago	excluded
Rams vs. Seahawks	LOW SELL Seahawks @ 79¢	$18.8k	21%	271d ago	excluded
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$16.5k	85%	286d ago	called
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$49.9k 3.2× usual	100%	331d ago	excluded

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	18	13	10.8	+12.3 pts
Other	1	1	0.8	+15.1 pts

one8tyfive

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