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Weekly report card

Week 2026-18

Apr 27, 00:00 EDT – May 03, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
-1.7 pts
Called
202/350
Expected from price
207.9
Std. error
±1.9

In week 2026-18, 350 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 202 times; entry prices implied 207.9. Whales did no better than the price (-1.7 pts). One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other270168162.4+2.1 pts
Sports531728.1-20.9 pts
Economy181111.1-0.8 pts
Crypto966.2-2.0 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢ $668.0k43% jdsahgf177d agomissed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢ $477.3k43% jdsahgf177d agomissed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢ $433.7k43% jdsahgf177d agomissed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢ $322.9k43% jdsahgf177d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 96¢ $227.8k
8.1× usual
96% TwoEyes218d agocalled
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ $140.4k42% jdsahgf177d agomissed
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsMED BUY Nuggets @ 82¢ $132.7k
2.9× usual
82% texaskid179d agocalled
Golden Knights vs. UtahMED BUY Utah @ 49¢ $122.5k49% timezonewarrior175d agomissed
Pistons vs. MagicLOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ $97.5k
2.3× usual
58% 0x3625…1187180d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $96.0k96% Qtyu206d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $94.0k
3.6× usual
94% Wickier207d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $92.0k
4.1× usual
92% SAPolitcsSeer210d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $83.7k
4.2× usual
93% jocpolitic209d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED SELL No @ 88¢ $83.0k
3.9× usual
12% 5245242185d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED BUY No @ 95¢ $81.4k
3.0× usual
95% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN184d agocalled
Canadiens vs. LightningMED BUY Lightning @ 60¢ $81.3k60% Talvez10 PROVEN173d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $74.6k
3.5× usual
96% 5245242185d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ $69.1k
3.1× usual
96% SAPolitcsSeer201d agocalled
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30?MED BUY Yes @ 28¢ $68.2k28% everydaymortgage176d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $66.4k85% skibabiba219d agocalled
Netanyahu out by April 30?MED BUY No @ 96.6¢ $65.3k
2.9× usual
97% SAPolitcsSeer210d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $63.0k
2.2× usual
88% PolBandit216d agocalled
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?MED BUY Yes @ 30¢ $60.0k
2.6× usual
30% frankfrankfrank177d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?HIGH SELL No @ 95¢ $59.3k
2.2× usual
5% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN188d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $57.6k
3.3× usual
97% 0x1997…2e36204d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $56.7k7% heyo11209d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $56.4k
2.8× usual
94% jocpolitic206d agocalled
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsMED BUY Nuggets @ 80¢ $56.1k80% 0xf668…5c69180d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?MED SELL No @ 96.5¢ $55.0k
3.4× usual
3% 0xcf19…6402181d agomissed
Pistons vs. MagicMED BUY Pistons @ 60¢ $53.2k
2.3× usual
60% mooseborzoi LOSING179d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED BUY No @ 76¢ $51.3k
2.1× usual
76% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN197d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $50.0k86% 0xbe48…683f221d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $48.5k93% 0xg304yj0183d agocalled
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?MED SELL No @ 96¢ $48.0k
2.4× usual
4% pikachusplace180d agomissed
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $47.6k
2.2× usual
68% 0xfd29…77ae178d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $47.0k94% aff3 PROVEN184d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $47.0k94% wokerjoesleeper PROVEN206d agocalled
Pistons vs. MagicLOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ $46.1k58% 0xbd14…d62a179d agomissed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?MED SELL No @ 95.4¢ $45.8k
2.3× usual
5% pikachusplace181d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?MED BUY No @ 91.5¢ $45.8k
2.5× usual
92% Arbguy183d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $45.4k95% esports095189d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 88¢ $45.1k12% anoin123225d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $43.8k
2.1× usual
81% angelat0190d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $42.5k
2.1× usual
91% jocpolitic197d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $42.4k
3.2× usual
97% Canaldi194d agocalled
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsMED BUY Timberwolves @ 20¢ $41.8k20% EdZachary179d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?MED BUY No @ 94.2¢ $41.6k94% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN182d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $41.4k96% Chelseaone181d agocalled
Pistons vs. MagicLOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ $40.6k58% 0xb915…8da5176d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?MED SELL No @ 78¢ $40.6k22% 0x293e…7674185d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $38.9k97% foodenjoyer181d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢ $38.8k92% whyhealwayswinning197d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $38.3k87% trevors4224d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW SELL Yes @ 45¢ $36.5k55% boyau194d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?HIGH BUY Yes @ 13¢ $36.3k
2.2× usual
13% switjoe NEW225d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ $34.8k60% 2026.2026189d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 87¢ $34.8k87% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN217d agocalled
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)LOW BUY Suns @ 51¢ $34.7k51% 0x163e…dc5b179d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $34.0k85% wokerjoesleeper PROVEN219d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $33.7k96% 0xb9d8…275a196d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 67¢ $33.2k67% ololololololololo216d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $33.0k
2.3× usual
97% 099play199d agocalled
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ $32.1k39% 0x6f80…8a96 NEW180d agomissed
Will Trump visit China by April 30?MED BUY No @ 70¢ $32.1k70% MisTKy PROVEN212d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED BUY No @ 90¢ $32.0k90% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN184d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $31.9k86% wokerjoesleeper PROVEN221d agocalled
Golden Knights vs. UtahLOW BUY Golden Knights @ 51¢ $31.6k51% Mosley1175d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $31.2k85% wokerjoesleeper PROVEN221d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 87¢ $30.4k87% ScottyNooo PROVEN226d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL Yes @ 24¢ $30.4k76% idfinsider0228193d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 63¢ $29.4k
2.2× usual
63% mombil189d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 96.5¢ $28.9k4% gopfan2206d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $28.9k96% westminster181d agocalled
76ers vs. CelticsLOW BUY Celtics @ 72¢ $28.8k72% benwyatt175d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $28.6k80% 0xf1bf…11d7188d agocalled
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsMED BUY Timberwolves @ 18¢ $28.5k18% YYYYY999179d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $28.2k94% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN184d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?MED BUY No @ 93¢ $27.9k93% PolBandit197d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $27.6k92% stupid22192d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $27.6k86% Erasmus. PROVEN194d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED SELL No @ 96.9¢ $27.5k3% sabsabinxz183d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $27.2k7% Dantisto197d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $27.1k97% ningquewulan123206d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ $27.1k96% 65765757202d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $26.6k95% stupid22192d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $25.8k86% Eatpraylove223d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ $25.2k89% Messiah07199d agomissed
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $24.8k70% Cannae177d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 88¢ $24.7k12% tourists215d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 96.4¢ $24.5k4% DessertFalcon183d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $24.2k3% Ligff200d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $24.1k96% wokerjoesleeper PROVEN202d agocalled
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ $24.0k40% 0xfd29…77ae178d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ $24.0k95% Egozic86186d agocalled
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 19¢ $23.8k19% Maxdaboss1179d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 92.6¢ $23.1k7% 0x293e…7674185d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $23.0k88% 0xd11f…70f4199d agocalled
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?LOW SELL No @ 42¢ $22.7k58% gardens232d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $22.5k93% MisTKy PROVEN196d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $22.5k89% GoriIIa PROVEN185d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.