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boyau

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +10.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+10.6 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$359.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$732.6k
Last 30 days +$5,813 · $56.40M volume · 44,223 trades · since Feb 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.90M
Open P&L · 70 positions
−$21.2k
Closed-position win rate
57%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
241d
545 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other210.8+10.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $91.6k
4.3× usual
93% 2d agopending
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $22.7k86% 2d agopending
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?LOW SELL No @ 90.1¢ $21.5k10% 32d agomissed
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ $22.5k95% 42d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW SELL Yes @ 36¢ $12.7k64% 93d agoexcluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ $10.1k23% 94d agoexcluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW SELL No @ 90¢ $16.5k10% 102d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 77¢ $18.9k23% 136d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $21.3k3% 146d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 63¢ $42.9k
2.0× usual
63% 151d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $10.1k59% 159d agoexcluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW SELL Yes @ 45¢ $36.5k55% 194d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $10.7k89% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢ $21.7k24% 210d agomissed

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