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wokerjoesleeper

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 20 of 21. The prices it paid implied about 19.0 wins, so it did +4.9 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+4.9 pts over 21 bets). Without its single best bet: +4.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$190.9kNo · avg 50¢ → 83¢ · $478.4kWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$191.0kYes · avg 50¢ → 17¢ · $96.6kWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$19.4kNo · avg 51¢ → 94.5¢ · $42.6k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$7,018Yes · avg 0¢ → 80¢ · $7,018Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$375Yes · avg 86¢ → 93.5¢ · $4,675 · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$1,624Yes · avg 0¢ → 96.2¢ · $1,6242026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$1,072Yes · avg 0¢ → 66¢ · $1,072 · 2 proven with, 0 againstMap Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)−$6Vitality · avg 59¢ → 58¢ · $702
Price-adjusted edge
+4.9 pts
Called / graded
20/21
Expected from price
19.0
Flagged volume
$2.03M
Sample size21 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.3 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$36k
21 graded bets in the order they resolved · 20 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$45k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me at 79¢) and the edge is +4.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
95% vs 91% · n=20
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$612.2k
Last 30 days −$1,084 · $214.32M volume · 1,715,274 trades · since Oct 13, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$8.40M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$135.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
741d
43169 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other131211.8+1.4 pts
Economy887.2+10.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 76¢ $12.2k24% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ $18.6k22% 87d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.3¢ $23.6k95% 100d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ $21.2k85% 106d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ $105.1k
4.4× usual
79% 107d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 25¢ $39.2k25% 108d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 81¢ $19.3k19% 108d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $63.7k
2.7× usual
91% 113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $12.3k77% 120d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $15.0k75% 121d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ $29.2k98% 149d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $13.2k97% 161d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $26.5k94% 172d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $21.4k94% 172d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $94.0k
3.9× usual
94% 174d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $16.1k92% 177d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $10.4k92% 181d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $24.1k96% 202d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.7¢ $16.5k98% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $10.9k87% 206d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ $14.6k98% 206d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ $19.5k97% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $47.0k94% 206d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.1× usual
0% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $29.9k0% 207d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ $10.2k95% 207d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $27.8k1% 209d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $24.8k1% 211d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $18.6k2% 215d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $16.5k87% 217d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ $17.4k2% 217d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.3¢ $11.5k3% 219d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $34.0k85% 219d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 96¢ $16.6k4% 219d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $31.9k86% 221d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $31.2k85% 221d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $19.4k97% 222d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $14.5k97% 222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.4¢ $38.6k96% 223d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.4¢ $121.8k
5.1× usual
96% 223d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $14.4k96% 224d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ $18.7k95% 225d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $25.0k93% 254d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $46.4k99% 265d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ $36.5k97% 286d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $27.2k97% 287d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $39.2k98% 287d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $45.5k91% 292d agocalled
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $94.8k
4.0× usual
100% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $47.4k100% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $26.4k88% 304d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $24.3k81% 305d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $13.2k79% 315d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $78.6k
3.3× usual
98% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $17.6k98% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $19.3k94% 358d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 93.3¢ $51.6k
2.2× usual
93% 358d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?HIGH SELL Yes @ 93.7¢ $57.7k
2.4× usual
6% 364d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 93.2¢ $29.8k7% 369d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 92.2¢ $26.7k8% 369d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $13.7k90% 378d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ $20.1k87% 379d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 88¢ $10.7k12% 379d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ $17.4k13% 379d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $12.0k86% 400d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 84¢ $29.3k84% 401d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 76¢$12.2k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 86d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 78¢$18.6k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 87d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.3¢$23.6k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 100d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 85¢$21.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 106d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 79¢$105.1k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 107d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 25¢$39.2k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 108d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 81¢$19.3k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 108d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 91¢$63.7k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 113d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 77¢$12.3k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 120d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 75¢$15.0k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 121d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.5¢$29.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 149d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$13.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 161d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 94¢$26.5k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 172d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 94¢$21.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 172d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 94¢$94.0k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 174d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 92¢$16.1k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 177d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 92¢$10.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 181d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 96¢$24.1k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 202d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.7¢$16.5k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 87¢$10.9k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 206d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.6¢$14.6k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 206d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.5¢$19.5k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 94¢$47.0k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$29.9k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 207d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.2¢$10.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 207d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$27.8k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 209d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$24.8k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 211d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$18.6k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 215d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 87¢$16.5k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 217d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97.9¢$17.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 217d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97.3¢$11.5k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 219d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 85¢$34.0k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 219d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 96¢$16.6k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 219d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 86¢$31.9k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 221d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 85¢$31.2k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 221d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$19.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 222d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$14.5k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 222d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 96.4¢$38.6k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 223d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 96.4¢$121.8k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 223d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 96¢$14.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 224d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.3¢$18.7k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 225d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 93¢$25.0k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 254d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$46.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 265d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 96.8¢$36.5k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 286d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97¢$27.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 287d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$39.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 287d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 91¢$45.5k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 292d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$94.8k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 295d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$47.4k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 296d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 88¢$26.4k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 304d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 81¢$24.3k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 305d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 79¢$13.2k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 315d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$78.6k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.7¢$17.6k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 353d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 94¢$19.3k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 358d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 93.3¢$51.6k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 358d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 93.7¢$57.7k
HIGH PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 364d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 93.2¢$29.8k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 369d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 92.2¢$26.7k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 369d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 90¢$13.7k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 378d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 87¢$20.1k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 379d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 88¢$10.7k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 379d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 87¢$17.4k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 379d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 86¢$12.0k
LOW PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 400d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 84¢$29.3k
MED PROVEN wokerjoesleeper · 401d ago

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