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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -88.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-88.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$209.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$260
Last 30 days −$170 · $627.3k volume · 466 trades · since Feb 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$38.8k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$39.0k
Closed-position win rate
53%
32 closed
Wallet age · markets
239d
33 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -88.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $25.2k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $54.2k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $21.2k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $22.0k | called |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 88¢ | $22.4k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $22.7k | called |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $21.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x380158…