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What this means. A wallet put $54.2k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$54.2k
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ · 54,387 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Messiah07 took Yes (sell) for $54.2k at an average 99.6¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $54.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.6¢
- Implied odds
- 0.4%
- Size
- $54.2k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 08:19 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 20:28 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Messiah07
- Tx
- 0xb0503964…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-88.8 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -0 ptsYes price · entry 99.6¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $870.2k 35.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |