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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -13.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.5 pts
Called / graded
0/12
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$264.6k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$265k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? at 3¢) and the edge is -14.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=9
20–40¢
0% vs 26% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$630.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.65M volume · 2,759 trades · since Mar 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$145.8k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$485.1k
Closed-position win rate
0%
1 closed
Wallet age · markets
225d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 12 | 0 | 1.6 | -13.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 4.7¢ | $12.2k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 3.8¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 3.4¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 5¢ | $14.7k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 3.8¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 29¢ | $41.2k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $12.6k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $18.2k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $25.1k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 24¢ | $48.0k 2.9× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $36.3k 2.2× usual |
missed |
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