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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -38.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-38.4 pts
Called / graded
0/10
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$15.02M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$2.2M10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? at 28¢) and the edge is -39.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 42% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$7.23M
Last 30 days +$0 · $37.46M volume · 1,257 trades · since Apr 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.66M
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$11.73M
Closed-position win rate
100%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
179d
14 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 0 | 0.9 | -29.5 pts |
| Sports | 7 | 0 | 3.0 | -42.3 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa1360d…