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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +2.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.2 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$736.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$97k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? at 88¢) and the edge is -0.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 22% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$151.7k
Last 30 days +$1,122 · $11.94M volume · 7,989 trades · since Aug 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$151.6k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
89%
356 closed
Wallet age · markets
810d
343 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +9.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -22.0 pts |
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +8.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7d2299…