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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.6 wins, so it did -10.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-10.3 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
4.6
Flagged volume
$427.9k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$20k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? at 58¢) and the edge is -20.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 59% · n=2
80–100¢
50% vs 86% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$159.1k
Last 30 days −$74 · $5.37M volume · 2,297 trades · since Apr 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$137.6k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$19.6k
Closed-position win rate
66%
293 closed
Wallet age · markets
197d
289 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | -30.6 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +42.0 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +18.8 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd84949…