← Wallets
+$9,328Yes · avg 36¢ → 44¢ · $50.4k+$3,436No · avg 76¢ → 94.5¢ · $17.8k−$4,670Yes · avg 12¢ → 9.1¢ · $17.5k+$1,863No · avg 86¢ → 97.8¢ · $15.5k+$6,036No · avg 40¢ → 65¢ · $15.4k+$250No · avg 71¢ → 72¢ · $14.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$100No · avg 63¢ → 64¢ · $12.7k+$2,242Yes · avg 4.1¢ → 5¢ · $12.7k
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +15.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +2.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+15.4 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$1.21M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$130k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? at 9¢) and the edge is +2.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
33% vs 10% · n=3
40–60¢
50% vs 48% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 78% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$194.3k
Last 30 days −$22.3k · $25.00M volume · 28,022 trades · since Feb 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 461 closed
+$169.9k
Open P&L · 26 positions
+$20.6k
Closed-position win rate
54%
461 closed
Wallet age · markets
265d
434 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | +2.5 pts |
| Other | 5 | 3 | 2.0 | +20.6 pts |
History
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missedBUY Yes @ 21¢$21.0k
LOW 0xcf19…6402 · 150d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missedBUY Yes @ 23¢$14.8k
LOW 0xcf19…6402 · 150d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missedBUY Yes @ 22¢$11.0k
LOW 0xcf19…6402 · 156d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missedSELL No @ 90¢$18.0k
LOW 0xcf19…6402 · 158d ago
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