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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $26.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 28% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$26.2k
SELL No @ 72¢ · 36,327 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet 0xcf19…6402 took No (sell) for $26.2k at an average 72¢. At that price the market implied a 28% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $26.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 72¢
- Implied odds
- 28.0%
- Size
- $26.2k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 17:44 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0xcf19…6402
- Tx
- 0x80466716…
This wallet's graded record
4/7+15.4 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |