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+$217No · avg 64¢ → 66¢ · $8,693+$597No · avg 83¢ → 97.5¢ · $4,058+$463No · avg 85¢ → 99¢ · $3,325+$441No · avg 80¢ → 96.4¢ · $2,638−$231No · avg 61¢ → 56¢ · $2,524+$26No · avg 94.9¢ → 96¢ · $2,361−$706No · avg 36¢ → 25¢ · $1,531−$3No · avg 80¢ → 79¢ · $455
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.6 wins, so it did +8.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +6.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.7 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.6
Flagged volume
$301.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$9k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? at 83¢) and the edge is +6.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$127.4k
Last 30 days −$1,429 · $4.90M volume · 10,315 trades · since Oct 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$551.4k
Open P&L · 167 positions
−$541.2k
Closed-position win rate
79%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
372d
693 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +9.3 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.5 pts |
History
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