Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$50
Return on staked
+9.9%
Bets
5/5 won
Edge vs price
+8.7 pts ±12.5
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 03, 11:13 ESTApr 02, 11:35 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 97¢ | called | 205d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 89¢ | called | 215d ago |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | 94¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | 93¢ | called | 241d ago |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | 83¢ | called | 263d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.