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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.6 wins, so it did +5.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.1 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.6
Flagged volume
$393.1k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$39k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Rockets vs. Lakers at 34¢) and the edge is -3.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 49% · n=3
60–80¢
25% vs 70% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.10M
Last 30 days +$0 · $86.75M volume · 102,071 trades · since Jun 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$14.74M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$6.71M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
507d
3335 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 5 | 4.6 | +5.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
 Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 46¢ | $20.6k | called |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $16.0k | called |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 72¢ | $28.8k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 58¢ | $39.6k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 29¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 78¢ | $16.5k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 34¢ | $13.4k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 56¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 73¢ | $67.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Lakers @ 65¢ | $13.7k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $26.4k | called |
 Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? | LOW BUY No @ 29¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Fiziev @ 55¢ | $46.8k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
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