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+$171No · avg 88¢ → 89¢ · $12.0k+$303Yes · avg 0.9¢ → 1.1¢ · $2,100+$750Yes · avg 1¢ → 1.8¢ · $1,750−$102Yes · avg 22¢ → 20¢ · $793−$223Yes · avg 52¢ → 30¢ · $301+$2Seahawks · avg 52¢ → 54¢ · $87
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -15.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-15.9 pts
Called / graded
2/8
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$468.5k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$144k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (76ers vs. Knicks at 38¢) and the edge is -27.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
25% vs 29% · n=4
40–60¢
0% vs 44% · n=2
60–80¢
50% vs 62% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$125.0k
Last 30 days +$151.0k · $12.48M volume · 12,877 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.94M
Open P&L · 138 positions
−$1.81M
Closed-position win rate
91%
106 closed
Wallet age · markets
361d
241 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 2 | 3.3 | -15.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bulls vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 53¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $30.8k | missed |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Kings @ 37¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Clippers (-4.5) | LOW BUY Kings @ 48¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Bulls vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Bulls @ 21¢ | $20.8k | missed |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 43¢ | $86.0k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Kings @ 36¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY 76ers @ 38¢ | $29.2k | called |
 Commanders vs. 49ers | MED BUY Commanders @ 5¢ | $43.4k | excluded |
 Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | LOW BUY Cleveland Guardians @ 40¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Rams @ 63¢ | $63.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $27.8k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 38¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 20¢ | $41.8k | missed |
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