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What this means. A wallet put $27.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$27.6k
BUY No @ 86¢ · 31,929 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $27.6k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $27.6k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−637American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 86.4%
- Size
- $27.6k
- Placed
- Apr 12, 12:48 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 30, 23:59 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0x4741271f…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $49.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $188.7k 10.6× usual |
excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $13.1k | excluded |