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−$92No · avg 93¢ → 92.5¢ · $17.0k−$145No · avg 93¢ → 91.5¢ · $8,896−$51Yes · avg 93¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,103
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -8.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-8.2 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$81.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,307
Last 30 days −$131 · $467.7k volume · 346 trades · since Apr 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9,676
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$287
Closed-position win rate
69%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
199d
62 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | -8.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | LOW SELL No @ 90¢ | $15.5k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 94.1¢ | $10.6k | missed |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $18.6k | called |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xee318a…