yungstalin

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 14 of 19. The prices it paid implied about 12.8 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +3.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+6.4 pts

Called / graded

14/19

Expected from price

12.8

Flagged volume

$2.73M

Sample size19 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$20k

19 graded bets in the order they resolved · 14 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? at 44¢) and the edge is +3.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 19% · n=1

20–40¢

0% vs 30% · n=2

40–60¢

50% vs 46% · n=4

60–80¢

100% vs 74% · n=4

80–100¢

100% vs 90% · n=8

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$306.0k

Last 30 days +$0 · $29.50M volume · 10,732 trades · since Mar 18, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$47.5k 2.7× usual	99%	72d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$34.0k	40%	74d ago	called
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 93.5¢	$23.8k	94%	96d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢	$19.8k	46%	101d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$11.1k	72%	113d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 83¢	$102.2k 5.7× usual	83%	113d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢	$24.5k	83%	113d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$13.0k	16%	117d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$229.3k 12.9× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$10.6k	80%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢	$18.6k	86%	131d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 31¢	$10.1k	69%	132d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢	$12.7k	44%	134d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢	$15.8k	14%	135d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢	$12.2k	83%	135d ago	excluded
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 65¢	$14.2k	65%	135d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$14.4k	78%	136d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$78.8k 4.4× usual	1%	143d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 64¢	$23.3k	64%	151d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢	$18.2k	23%	152d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢	$10.4k	44%	153d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$24.4k	65%	153d ago	missed
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$41.7k 2.3× usual	96%	154d ago	missed
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$21.4k	80%	156d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW SELL No @ 68¢	$16.8k	32%	156d ago	missed
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$50.4k 2.8× usual	67%	157d ago	called
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$24.7k	67%	158d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$28.7k	71%	160d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 67¢	$10.7k	33%	162d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢	$18.1k	19%	167d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$10.2k	47%	167d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	MED BUY Yes @ 25¢	$29.8k	25%	168d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 67¢	$80.8k 4.5× usual	67%	168d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢	$12.4k	49%	168d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢	$11.0k	47%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$23.6k	79%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 60¢	$16.0k	60%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$10.6k	72%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$19.7k	75%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 57¢	$28.5k	57%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$11.6k	73%	170d ago	called
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$13.6k	65%	170d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢	$10.6k	14%	171d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 54¢	$10.8k	54%	175d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$199.4k 11.2× usual	100%	176d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$188.7k 10.6× usual	0%	176d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 45¢	$10.2k	45%	177d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$14.2k	71%	177d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$28.4k	71%	178d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$11.0k	83%	178d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$15.7k	96%	181d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$10.1k	67%	182d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$12.0k	35%	182d ago	missed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢	$19.3k	92%	185d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$55.2k 3.1× usual	99%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.3¢	$34.1k	96%	185d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 92.4¢	$10.2k	92%	186d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$12.6k	77%	187d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$10.4k	71%	187d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90.4¢	$16.2k	90%	189d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 96.8¢	$105.6k 5.9× usual	97%	189d ago	called
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$20.4k	99%	196d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$29.5k	100%	196d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$29.4k	99%	196d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$37.5k 2.1× usual	89%	197d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 40¢	$12.0k	40%	199d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$17.5k	62%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$43.8k 2.5× usual	70%	199d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$26.0k	81%	199d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$54.1k 3.0× usual	100%	199d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$12.6k	85%	201d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$10.1k	77%	203d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED BUY Yes @ 69¢	$68.7k 3.9× usual	69%	203d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$14.5k	54%	206d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$16.0k	70%	208d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 95.6¢	$24.7k	4%	209d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$14.7k	44%	210d ago	missed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$17.1k	93%	210d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$11.9k	84%	210d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 92.7¢	$37.6k 2.1× usual	93%	211d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$11.2k	81%	212d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$13.6k	82%	212d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$16.4k	82%	214d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$19.0k	98%	214d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$17.4k	95%	216d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$21.8k	81%	217d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$33.9k	90%	218d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢	$74.2k 4.2× usual	97%	218d ago	called

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	2	1	1.4	-20.4 pts
Other	17	13	11.4	+9.5 pts

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