Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$35
Return on staked
-1.9%
Bets
14/19 won
Edge vs price
+6.4 pts ±9.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +6.6 pts (8/9). Newer half: +6.2 pts (6/10).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 19, 11:27 EDTJul 14, 08:31 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 46¢ | missed | 102d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 86¢ | called | 132d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 44¢ | called | 135d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 44¢ | missed | 154d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 19¢ | missed | 168d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 25¢ | missed | 169d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 49¢ | called | 169d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 79¢ | called | 170d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 72¢ | called | 170d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 75¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 83¢ | called | 179d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 35¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 71¢ | called | 188d ago |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | 85¢ | called | 202d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 93¢ | called | 211d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.