Ligff

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$27Yes · avg 79¢ → 92.5¢ · $182 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?+$18No · avg 86¢ → 98.4¢ · $143 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?−$3No · avg 97.2¢ → 94.3¢ · $94

Price-adjusted edge

-3.1 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$24.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$9,068

Last 30 days +$33 · $505.6k volume · 575 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$9,025

Open P&L · 3 positions

+$42

Closed-position win rate

55%

62 closed

Wallet age · markets

383d

61 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.0	-3.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢	$24.2k	3%	200d ago	missed

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?missed

SELL No @ 96.9¢$24.2k

LOW Ligff · 200d ago

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