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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +1.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$66.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.7k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.15M volume · 1,323 trades · since Feb 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$20.7k
Open P&L · 5 positions
+$1
Closed-position win rate
29%
75 closed
Wallet age · markets
246d
72 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | +1.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $56.7k | missed |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢ | $10.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xbbed2c…