← Wallets
−$1,590No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $53.9k+$16.9kYes · avg 32¢ → 66¢ · $32.7k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$3,179Yes · avg 38¢ → 44¢ · $23.8k−$2,177Yes · avg 29¢ → 26¢ · $17.8k+$175No · avg 91.3¢ → 92.5¢ · $13.2k+$50No · avg 91¢ → 91.5¢ · $9,151+$7,363Yes · avg 15¢ → 75¢ · $9,135+$375No · avg 87¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,725
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 9.1 wins, so it did -1.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.0 pts
Called / graded
9/10
Expected from price
9.1
Flagged volume
$1.51M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$9710 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in at 75¢) and the edge is -3.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=1
80–100¢
89% vs 93% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$554.5k
Last 30 days −$2,967 · $62.98M volume · 131,047 trades · since Jun 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.73M
Open P&L · 121 positions
−$16.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
872d
1542 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +10.2 pts |
| Other | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | -11.2 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.5 pts |
History
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