Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$14
Return on staked
-1.4%
Bets
9/10 won
Edge vs price
-1.0 pts ±8.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +10.8 pts (5/5). Newer half: -12.8 pts (4/5). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 16, 22:28 ESTSep 20, 15:58 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 97¢ | called | 34d ago |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 93¢ | called | 74d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 96¢ | called | 200d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 96¢ | called | 202d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 83¢ | missed | 206d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 86¢ | called | 224d ago |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | 75¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | 94¢ | called | 285d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 95¢ | called | 289d ago |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | 95¢ | called | 311d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.