← Wallets
−$2,686Yes · avg 28¢ → 26¢ · $47.5k · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did -12.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-12.1 pts
Called / graded
1/8
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$475.1k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$324k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? at 77¢) and the edge is -17.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 8% · n=5
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$882.2k
Last 30 days −$874 · $20.07M volume · 10,219 trades · since Oct 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$679.7k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$202.1k
Closed-position win rate
35%
346 closed
Wallet age · markets
373d
345 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | -33.9 pts |
| Other | 5 | 1 | 0.9 | +1.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x6adccc…