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+$6,713No · avg 37¢ → 76¢ · $13.2k+$923No · avg 48¢ → 90.5¢ · $1,973+$619No · avg 23¢ → 38¢ · $1,502−$794No · avg 36¢ → 20¢ · $979−$431No · avg 55¢ → 10¢ · $102
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.2 wins, so it did -3.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-3.3 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.2
Flagged volume
$164.9k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$60k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? at 85¢) and the edge is -6.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 23% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$15.6k
Last 30 days −$18.4k · $8.02M volume · 7,582 trades · since May 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$275.4k
Open P&L · 160 positions
−$165.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
883d
862 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | -11.4 pts |
| Other | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $11.4k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | MED SELL No @ 95¢ | $30.3k 2.2× usual |
missed |
 Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL No @ 95.8¢ | $13.4k | missed |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ | $24.0k | called |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | LOW BUY No @ 93.2¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
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