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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +0.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -7.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+0.8 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$851.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$123k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US forces enter Iran by April 30? at 58¢) and the edge is -7.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 58% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 61% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.43M volume · 2,730 trades · since Oct 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2,976
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$20.7k
Closed-position win rate
68%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
382d
61 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -28.5 pts |
| Other | 4 | 3 | 2.4 | +15.5 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x430fc1…