{"flags":[{"condition_id":"0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6e3601a44bd43c0d14d34f4cf6aa47f1a098f9545efd3a670835acb6a9dce08d:0","id":"trade:0x6e3601a44bd43c0d14d34f4cf6aa47f1a098f9545efd3a670835acb6a9dce08d:0","implied":0.6106570336626004,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.6106570336626004,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1780316202,"title":"MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?","usd":59207.06487261219,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x615b6486725aa5290e2bf24cafbf0e35dd3b05bfc3563d143a87a602fe09c1e7:1","id":"trade:0x615b6486725aa5290e2bf24cafbf0e35dd3b05bfc3563d143a87a602fe09c1e7:1","implied":0.12,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.88,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1780023023,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","usd":17600.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x421bc1929df1429cf2cb94f80c1ce6a3ed0d1f0b7a2749b9890075f94eb549e9","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x4b4e0a5d4f0eb709e525abaae0a587d197176bbfe43dc6cb801c823e10eaeceb:1","id":"trade:0x4b4e0a5d4f0eb709e525abaae0a587d197176bbfe43dc6cb801c823e10eaeceb:1","implied":0.001000000000000112,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9989999999999999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1779858353,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?","usd":17584.14825,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6729b7fe20e9dc508984b95c6a6dec9d7303ce3da040a79236c6e1abdbf58fce:1","id":"trade:0x6729b7fe20e9dc508984b95c6a6dec9d7303ce3da040a79236c6e1abdbf58fce:1","implied":0.7465489967,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.7465489967,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1779806085,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","usd":22396.469901,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x421bc1929df1429cf2cb94f80c1ce6a3ed0d1f0b7a2749b9890075f94eb549e9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x8667a27c7ec60dc7ae1a891f943b02652045bedb01d2695c06352caba70e5520:1","id":"trade:0x8667a27c7ec60dc7ae1a891f943b02652045bedb01d2695c06352caba70e5520:1","implied":0.92,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.92,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1779708846,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?","usd":12053.619200000001,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xf42098629fbd86be68bf44190df7895c1c031c9f1092da9eea568ea619749858:1","id":"trade:0xf42098629fbd86be68bf44190df7895c1c031c9f1092da9eea568ea619749858:1","implied":0.6501715498,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.6501715498,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1779632027,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","usd":48250.713101791545,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0xffe381a80c1e36f9e0b03a542aa8fe56e74a67d2566a4e29396d4427aa4244c9","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x7fd29269f3975f57ff615e2edeb519f5674743d6317dbf0f70d5ddf3862220a4:1","id":"trade:0x7fd29269f3975f57ff615e2edeb519f5674743d6317dbf0f70d5ddf3862220a4:1","implied":0.008172199600000152,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9918278003999998,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1778489907,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?","usd":69562.83460885439,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0xffe381a80c1e36f9e0b03a542aa8fe56e74a67d2566a4e29396d4427aa4244c9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x1ebae44cca528c77a92e2b102601c72b944746131116143cac3e011aa949f98a:1","id":"trade:0x1ebae44cca528c77a92e2b102601c72b944746131116143cac3e011aa949f98a:1","implied":0.940065998083585,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.940065998083585,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1778168614,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?","usd":65816.09807168755,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5161625a6be1337e08df9a125b8a371a1a4d2630ffdbe23287a80229d59f56e7:1","id":"trade:0x5161625a6be1337e08df9a125b8a371a1a4d2630ffdbe23287a80229d59f56e7:1","implied":0.861699753,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.861699753,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1778062422,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?","usd":10059.41398054176,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0xf326a07132ea27d151fade9df0424db7c5ee496b44e5f373a41b4f15431bfd97","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x4e597f6bc24ca4dfc7eedb02e04b8cf8dbbdd0550916f22e59e054d41e9a8f9d:1","id":"trade:0x4e597f6bc24ca4dfc7eedb02e04b8cf8dbbdd0550916f22e59e054d41e9a8f9d:1","implied":0.96,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.96,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1776836308,"title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?","usd":74600.93879039999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x924a2942747dd75703321a7c8d809c68f6a514c3b0f2a2e64274e02310634669","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xdc8fb846e212b5b84eeee66f035ca351af32b6ffb04a735cec2c9b3191b5aa07:1","id":"trade:0xdc8fb846e212b5b84eeee66f035ca351af32b6ffb04a735cec2c9b3191b5aa07:1","implied":0.11557734480000004,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8844226552,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1776835364,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?","usd":82985.89070255602,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x687703a9467381d7f5e7bf9aefc1201e4f59b5bf710ee6388f1c684a33891df9:1","id":"trade:0x687703a9467381d7f5e7bf9aefc1201e4f59b5bf710ee6388f1c684a33891df9:1","implied":0.04402865290000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9559713471,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1776222638,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","usd":19295.010199321856,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x91f3d66da12888cca9af271f4bb9f6d659e2ebc6bce59d90081a2481d8c4665e:1","id":"trade:0x91f3d66da12888cca9af271f4bb9f6d659e2ebc6bce59d90081a2481d8c4665e:1","implied":0.02679623519999985,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9732037648000001,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1776159261,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","usd":42337.23471990616,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6490b487827b33ae6bdc8a03fb8b21e1afa2cf1c8a1a312dcb85f8d9f010df16:1","id":"trade:0x6490b487827b33ae6bdc8a03fb8b21e1afa2cf1c8a1a312dcb85f8d9f010df16:1","implied":0.94,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.94,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1776003461,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","usd":61897.7968,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe4baa585571c3f48301d7faf64731746a00c78620497ea012f346e12ebaec69c:1","id":"trade:0xe4baa585571c3f48301d7faf64731746a00c78620497ea012f346e12ebaec69c:1","implied":0.13884595030000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8611540497,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1774282165,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","usd":29467.511799685908,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x0a8b292b52b48c2b6c3b75dd450bf7147685b3a75973701171d3f2293aea5815:1","id":"trade:0x0a8b292b52b48c2b6c3b75dd450bf7147685b3a75973701171d3f2293aea5815:1","implied":0.8782851941,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8782851941,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1774270099,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","usd":21055.57010075635,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x337e5c84b83679d5557acafcf78b5c5d4d932b9fcd7dfba7966249d64f0f0a0f","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x7513360c02d5e0c33d545addf6afe5c6e79b2ecc6633ebf58050afe0258a28fa:1","id":"trade:0x7513360c02d5e0c33d545addf6afe5c6e79b2ecc6633ebf58050afe0258a28fa:1","implied":0.09000000000000008,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9099999999999999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1774256805,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?","usd":13197.639,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xefc5992d15de4d49c1273d622fe860c344abbb490888600e052bdd5a00edd1c4:0","id":"trade:0xefc5992d15de4d49c1273d622fe860c344abbb490888600e052bdd5a00edd1c4:0","implied":0.58,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.58,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1774019631,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","usd":14837.014799999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x4290a4aa43a0707f0f1193c73667074f2ef5ce8ab5d6fcdd4ca645bfe1528f03","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xdaf36e5aeee5e7d83cf87bc54f60b9a5b7d89ffd4ef9fe7bedc402463e13f0bb:1","id":"trade:0xdaf36e5aeee5e7d83cf87bc54f60b9a5b7d89ffd4ef9fe7bedc402463e13f0bb:1","implied":0.24184505079999996,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.7581549492,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1773924821,"title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?","usd":17350.709600619648,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x337e5c84b83679d5557acafcf78b5c5d4d932b9fcd7dfba7966249d64f0f0a0f","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x49aba461e1bbecc024f8ad6d4309a04be57ccf896dc210f5a92b912504e5df0f:1","id":"trade:0x49aba461e1bbecc024f8ad6d4309a04be57ccf896dc210f5a92b912504e5df0f:1","implied":0.86,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.86,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1773923629,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?","usd":12472.493999999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x4290a4aa43a0707f0f1193c73667074f2ef5ce8ab5d6fcdd4ca645bfe1528f03","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xc51c97c92bd01e8febe77759b2b05b087f19c8167feec4de806741a0f6581e5b:1","id":"trade:0xc51c97c92bd01e8febe77759b2b05b087f19c8167feec4de806741a0f6581e5b:1","implied":0.745520314,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.745520314,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1772622057,"title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?","usd":19451.8551007781,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x732f8db060ecb7c22b7ad9680f2fd5c1d2a1d37fbd8d6c2d2f551162d006416e:1","id":"trade:0x732f8db060ecb7c22b7ad9680f2fd5c1d2a1d37fbd8d6c2d2f551162d006416e:1","implied":0.7361602806,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.7361602806,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1772621457,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","usd":14709.461499561201,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x2603d5576c488e4f2a4fa41677917044e796917b2ff251d639b635062fe6b068","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe0fbf78787d3bb6082f0a928ac723cde1b1888ed0c5431092f89cce1af42f3b9:1","id":"trade:0xe0fbf78787d3bb6082f0a928ac723cde1b1888ed0c5431092f89cce1af42f3b9:1","implied":0.006541675999999996,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.993458324,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1769685500,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?","usd":26445.72150071464,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0x2603d5576c488e4f2a4fa41677917044e796917b2ff251d639b635062fe6b068","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x27b4984718a8586dc08e18509f14971885a64c3f88a6b5f678c1cfb4a327301f:1","id":"trade:0x27b4984718a8586dc08e18509f14971885a64c3f88a6b5f678c1cfb4a327301f:1","implied":0.9,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768927450,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?","usd":17634.231,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0xd1047755d35a03b7ceea9923daae56ecf67784446daa63e87eebc471b4b9dbd9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5823c580cbf05f240b7d298d50bfeb4f837a66c07ded4a464bb175efd1582cba:1","id":"trade:0x5823c580cbf05f240b7d298d50bfeb4f837a66c07ded4a464bb175efd1582cba:1","implied":0.8224968528,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8224968528,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768239495,"title":"US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?","usd":15236.359399630655,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0xa886b40d69b4733df3086a6b3f106ab783e1ac7fa91fea42ad807a00ed0f6846","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xb0094d3e7b57bcce602cd754e0d43d0c45ffdfd00a8e60846d1295b253f9511e:1","id":"trade:0xb0094d3e7b57bcce602cd754e0d43d0c45ffdfd00a8e60846d1295b253f9511e:1","implied":0.05915031199999987,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9408496880000001,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1764087145,"title":"Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?","usd":22863.324830175363,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"},{"condition_id":"0xa886b40d69b4733df3086a6b3f106ab783e1ac7fa91fea42ad807a00ed0f6846","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x56d7779736b1779efd55182afd6a39d8864b12eee562b3a215bfddebcff5d726:1","id":"trade:0x56d7779736b1779efd55182afd6a39d8864b12eee562b3a215bfddebcff5d726:1","implied":0.9374667911,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9374667911,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1763995773,"title":"Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?","usd":22781.11799981959,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"}],"record":{"called":4,"edge":0.008261502622899966,"exp_rate":0.6584051640437667,"expected":3.9504309842626,"hit":0.6666666666666666,"n":6,"se":0.15698047575732063},"wallet":"0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947"}