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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did +8.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +3.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.8 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$466.5k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$73k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Maple Leafs vs. Flames at 52¢) and the edge is +3.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 53% · n=4
60–80¢
33% vs 63% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.76M
Last 30 days +$0 · $41.76M volume · 42,844 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$8.38M
Open P&L · 294 positions
−$2.82M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
369d
1653 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +37.0 pts |
| Sports | 7 | 4 | 3.7 | +4.7 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xea2b42…