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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -3.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.5 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$160.0k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$125.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.82M volume · 18,929 trades · since Feb 18, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.62M
Open P&L · 92 positions
−$3.74M
Closed-position win rate
93%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
248d
186 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $40.4k | excluded |
 Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY No @ 68¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY No @ 68¢ | $47.6k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $19.0k | missed |
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