← Wallets
+$338Yes · avg 83¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,821+$649No · avg 69¢ → 97¢ · $2,214−$3,075No · avg 75¢ → 14¢ · $675−$408Yes · avg 18¢ → 9.8¢ · $492
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +31.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+31.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$68.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$16.3k
Last 30 days +$311 · $1.85M volume · 2,825 trades · since Feb 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$22.9k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$6,351
Closed-position win rate
82%
51 closed
Wallet age · markets
255d
55 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | +31.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 87¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $27.1k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $19.0k | called |
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