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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -8.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-8.5 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$757.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$199k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Golden Knights vs. Utah at 51¢) and the edge is -22.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
40% vs 48% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$366.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $35.42M volume · 24,774 trades · since Mar 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.25M
Open P&L · 69 positions
−$2.53M
Closed-position win rate
60%
172 closed
Wallet age · markets
218d
222 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.4 | -8.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Golden Knights vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 47¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | LOW BUY Canadiens @ 49¢ | $38.7k | excluded |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | LOW BUY Sabres @ 43¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Avalanche vs. Wild | LOW BUY Wild @ 44¢ | $26.1k | missed |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | MED BUY Golden Knights @ 52¢ | $41.3k | excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 51¢ | $31.6k | called |
| Wild vs. Stars | MED BUY Wild @ 46¢ | $94.6k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Wild vs. Red Wings | LOW BUY Wild @ 56¢ | $75.9k | excluded |
| Flames vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 58¢ | $59.4k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Sharks | MED BUY Ducks @ 49¢ | $130.8k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Canucks vs. Flames | LOW BUY Canucks @ 41¢ | $70.8k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | MED BUY Ducks @ 42¢ | $44.7k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | MED BUY Ducks @ 42¢ | $84.0k | missed |
| Wild vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Wild @ 56¢ | $15.0k | called |
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