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+$30Yes · avg 44¢ → 46¢ · $910+$174Yes · avg 26¢ → 47¢ · $390
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -33.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-33.2 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$629.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$221k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Chiefs vs. Raiders at 68¢) and the edge is -46.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 46% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$381.8k
Last 30 days −$79.5k · $5.54M volume · 3,000 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$735.8k
Open P&L · 123 positions
−$1.11M
Closed-position win rate
84%
142 closed
Wallet age · markets
207d
263 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 3.0 | -33.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $45.6k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 52¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 43¢ | $14.1k | missed |
 Lions vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Lions @ 67¢ | $62.2k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 68¢ | $98.6k | called |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 62¢ | $201.4k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
 Golden Knights vs. Utah | MED BUY Utah @ 49¢ | $122.5k | missed |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Senators @ 43¢ | $70.8k | missed |
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