← Wallets
+$2,246Yes · avg 79¢ → 92.5¢ · $15.6k+$555No · avg 25¢ → 26¢ · $13.0k+$2,311Yes · avg 8.6¢ → 13¢ · $7,200+$4,277No · avg 13¢ → 49¢ · $5,764−$26.1kYes · avg 20¢ → 3.4¢ · $5,286+$2,068No · avg 25¢ → 47¢ · $4,480−$1,165Yes · avg 3.9¢ → 2.2¢ · $1,565+$116Yes · avg 84¢ → 96.8¢ · $861
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 9.4 wins, so it did -10.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.3 pts
Called / graded
8/14
Expected from price
9.4
Flagged volume
$1.82M
Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$51k14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? at 61¢) and the edge is -14.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 49% · n=3
60–80¢
60% vs 69% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$65.1k
Last 30 days −$8,251 · $18.08M volume · 7,306 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.20M
Open P&L · 128 positions
−$777.2k
Closed-position win rate
77%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
852d
632 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | +13.7 pts |
| Economy | 7 | 2 | 4.5 | -36.0 pts |
| Other | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +17.7 pts |
History
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