Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$405
Return on staked
-28.9%
Bets
8/14 won
Edge vs price
-10.3 pts ±10.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +16.7 pts (7/7). Newer half: -37.3 pts (1/7). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 09, 18:04 EDTAug 31, 13:21 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 40¢ | missed | 54d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 49¢ | missed | 57d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 57¢ | missed | 57d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 68¢ | missed | 64d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 68¢ | missed | 64d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 74¢ | called | 92d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 5¢ | missed | 207d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 219d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 61¢ | called | 242d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 81¢ | called | 283d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 91¢ | called | 355d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 89¢ | called | 360d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 93¢ | called | 367d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 72¢ | called | 472d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.