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+$4,815Yes · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $79.1k−$292No · avg 95¢ → 94¢ · $29.7k+$3,605Yes · avg 83¢ → 97¢ · $25.5k+$51Yes · avg 93.8¢ → 94¢ · $22.0k+$527No · avg 94.9¢ → 97.4¢ · $20.7k+$269No · avg 97.1¢ → 98.4¢ · $20.7k+$447No · avg 94.4¢ → 96.6¢ · $19.6k+$356No · avg 94.5¢ → 96.4¢ · $19.0k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 6.6 wins, so it did +5.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.2 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
6.6
Flagged volume
$920.3k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$8k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? at 88¢) and the edge is +4.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$75.1k
Last 30 days +$3,812 · $2.98M volume · 1,199 trades · since Mar 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$66.7k
Open P&L · 41 positions
+$8,609
Closed-position win rate
92%
83 closed
Wallet age · markets
211d
123 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 7 | 6.6 | +5.2 pts |
History
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