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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 7.3 wins, so it did -19.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-19.2 pts
Called / graded
5/12
Expected from price
7.3
Flagged volume
$4.22M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$89k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Avalanche vs. Wild at 55¢) and the edge is -25.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
57% vs 54% · n=7
60–80¢
0% vs 67% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$964.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $16.89M volume · 1,288 trades · since Mar 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.29M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
96%
339 closed
Wallet age · markets
227d
669 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 5 | 7.3 | -19.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $40.0k | missed |
 Avalanche vs. Wild | LOW BUY Avalanche @ 55¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ | $97.5k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 56¢ | $80.8k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 4.8¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 85¢ | $792.6k 18.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 51¢ | $43.7k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 70¢ | $441.9k 10.6× usual |
missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $47.8k | missed |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 59¢ | $29.3k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 15¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $1.05M 25.1× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $29.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $39.5k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | MED BUY Rockets @ 60¢ | $135.0k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $687.1k 16.4× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | HIGH BUY Suns @ 59¢ | $487.7k 11.7× usual |
called |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED SELL Magic @ 87¢ | $100.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 43¢ | $38.6k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 60¢ | $19.5k | missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Spurs @ 88¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
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