Tools · Backtest

What if you had copied them?

Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.

Hypothetical P&L

−$385

Return on staked

-32.1%

Bets

5/12 won

Edge vs price

-19.2 pts ±13.7

Consistency check. Older half of bets: -16.7 pts (3/6). Newer half: -21.7 pts (2/6).

Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet

Apr 11, 02:07 EDTMay 30, 06:50 EDT

Most recent bets in the test

Market	Entry	Result	Placed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	40¢	missed	147d ago
Avalanche vs. Wild	55¢	called	166d ago
Pistons vs. Magic	58¢	missed	180d ago
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	56¢	called	183d ago
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)	51¢	missed	186d ago
Hawks vs. Knicks	70¢	missed	187d ago
Hawks vs. Knicks	69¢	missed	187d ago
Senators vs. Hurricanes	59¢	called	187d ago
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	86¢	called	187d ago
Warriors vs. Suns	59¢	called	189d ago
Trail Blazers vs. Suns	60¢	missed	193d ago
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?	68¢	missed	196d ago

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Why this overstates what you'd get

You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).

Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.