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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -17.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.8 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$250.1k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$58.5k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.49M volume · 174 trades · since Dec 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$11.9k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$70.4k
Closed-position win rate
56%
27 closed
Wallet age · markets
669d
42 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -20.4 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -10.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $52.6k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $11.9k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $30.8k | called |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 10¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $11.9k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $30.8k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $51.6k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $48.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8cba43…