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+$5,440No · avg 89¢ → 97.7¢ · $61.2k−$2,749Yes · avg 84¢ → 80¢ · $51.3k+$176No · avg 83¢ → 84¢ · $19.1k+$97Yes · avg 80¢ → 81¢ · $7,843−$829Yes · avg 11¢ → 3.1¢ · $324
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 9.5 wins, so it did -4.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-4.4 pts
Called / graded
9/12
Expected from price
9.5
Flagged volume
$879.6k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$64k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? at 66¢) and the edge is -7.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
88% vs 90% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$137.0k
Last 30 days +$7,054 · $9.35M volume · 1,886 trades · since Oct 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$46.5k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$89.8k
Closed-position win rate
82%
172 closed
Wallet age · markets
367d
172 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 9 | 6 | 7.0 | -11.5 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.0 pts |
| Crypto | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +21.1 pts |
History
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