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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 8.0 wins, so it did +16.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +14.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.9 pts
Called / graded
10/12
Expected from price
8.0
Flagged volume
$2.51M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$394k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Senators vs. Hurricanes at 58¢) and the edge is +14.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 57% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=8
80–100¢
50% vs 84% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$142.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.66M volume · 5,912 trades · since Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.63M
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$1.53M
Closed-position win rate
65%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
195d
74 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 10 | 8.0 | +16.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $148.5k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $28.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $66.3k | called |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $152.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $101.7k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 65¢ | $52.3k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $126.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 66¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $69.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 67¢ | $14.8k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED SELL Knicks @ 68¢ | $125.6k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 70¢ | $129.1k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $96.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | LOW SELL Pistons @ 47¢ | $34.9k | called |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | LOW BUY Pistons @ 48¢ | $35.7k | missed |
 Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva | LOW BUY Coco Gauff @ 64¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ | $194.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ | $167.1k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $86.2k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $25.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 63¢ | $77.9k | called |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 74¢ | $346.2k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
 Senators vs. Hurricanes | MED BUY Hurricanes @ 58¢ | $138.6k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 15¢ | $86.4k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $80.5k | missed |
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