Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$336
Return on staked
+28.0%
Bets
10/12 won
Edge vs price
+16.9 pts ±13.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +13.2 pts (5/6). Newer half: +20.7 pts (5/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 18, 08:46 EDTJun 16, 13:54 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | 67¢ | called | 130d ago |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 55¢ | missed | 154d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 65¢ | called | 156d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 69¢ | called | 156d ago |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | 60¢ | called | 166d ago |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | 60¢ | called | 166d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 66¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 64¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 63¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | 58¢ | called | 186d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 85¢ | called | 189d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 84¢ | missed | 189d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.